As we step boldly into 2024, it's time to once again take stock of how well my tech predictions fared in the whirlwind that was 2023. This year I asked ChatGPT to grade me! Now, let's see where I hit the mark, where I missed, and where the jury's still out. Then, it's time to forecast the AI tech trends of 2024. That’s right, while I believe there will be other important tech milestones in the upcoming year, much of it will be driven by AI, so I’ve decided to focus on those trends and their impact in other areas.

Here are a few, but not all, of my 2023 predictions and what ChatGPT had to say about my fortune-telling abilities:

KI versteht uns wie uns der Schnabel gewachsen ist.

ChatGPT: “[Grade: A] Your prediction here was spot-on. Tools like GPT-4 have revolutionized how we interact with AI, making it more accessible and widespread in various applications.”

There’s something inherently dystopian about an AI telling me that AI would advance to the point of being able to tell me that AI had advanced. But I’ll take it.

Die Beziehung zu Mitarbeitern und Kunden wird gleichermaßen wichtig.

ChatGPT: “[Grade: B] Companies are increasingly recognizing the importance of employee experience, but it's still often secondary to customer experience. There's progress, but it's slow.”

I guess ChatGPT heard about its overlord’s November 2023 CEO ousting debacle. I still have hope that technology will continue to empower workers and employers will make this a priority. Please see my 2024 prediction on intangible outcomes below.

Blockchain's resilience and evolution.

ChatGPT: “[Grade: C+] The blockchain landscape remains volatile. While there's interest in its potential beyond cryptocurrencies, widespread adoption in mainstream applications is still in nascent stages.”

I still believe in the underlying technology of the blockchain, but I’ve been ahead of my skis on this one for the past few years, so will refrain from going there again this year.

Tschüss, Speziallösung! Hallo, Software-Ökosysteme!

ChatGPT: “[Grade: A] This prediction was quite accurate. The trend towards integrated software ecosystems has been evident, as businesses seek streamlined, interoperable solutions over isolated best-of-breed technologies.”

This train will keep rumbling down the tracks.

Now, here are 7 new predictions for which I will hold myself accountable for 2024...

Incumbency reigns supreme in emerging AI capabilities.

Established vendors adding advanced AI to their solutions will outshine smaller startups. As we move past the hype cycle, these incumbents, already deeply rooted in organizations, will leverage their position to integrate sophisticated AI, enhancing product value and reliability. In contrast, startups merely adapting third-party AI capabilities will face challenges competing in this environment, where established trust and integrated solutions are key. This trend underscores the growing importance of holistic, integrated AI solutions in the tech ecosystem.

Synergy between open-source and commercial AI development.

Amidst rising concerns over data privacy and bias in corporate AI, the collaboration between open-source and commercial AI becomes crucial. Open-source initiatives, known for their transparency, offer a buffer against biases and enhance trust. This synergy melds the diversity of open-source with commercial AI’s practicality, leading to robust, fairer algorithms. Expect this blend to drive AI innovation, balancing privacy concerns and bias mitigation in the tech landscape.

Generative AI sees the light of day. But not too much light.

With any innovation as explosive as Generative AI, the excitement eventually morphs into questions about practicality. One challenge for many has been how and where to apply this technology to their businesses. Many internal pilots will see the light of day in 2024 while we learn more about costs and thus seek funding for more externally facing programs in 2025.

Evolving ‘AI Ops’ to enterprise AI strategy.

'AI Ops' will transcend its traditional IT role, morphing into a wider 'Enterprise AI Strategy'. Originally focused on streamlining IT operations, AI Ops will now drive organizational transformation, integrating AI across business functions. This shift signifies a holistic approach where AI is not just for IT efficiency but a strategic asset across all departments — enhancing decision-making, operational processes, and business innovation. The evolution of AI Ops into a full-fledged enterprise AI strategy marks a pivotal change in harnessing AI for enterprise-wide benefits.

AI regulation: a year of deliberation and caution.

This will likely be a year of tentative progress in AI regulation, characterized by careful exploration rather than decisive legislative action. As technology creators and regulators engage in a nuanced dialogue, expect a focus on understanding AI's ethical, safety, and governance challenges. This period will be more about laying the groundwork for future regulations than implementing sweeping changes, setting the stage for a well-considered approach to AI policy development in the years to come.

Generative AI: Clear privacy policies, clearer skies ahead.

With many organizations hesitant to fully embrace Generative AI due to data privacy concerns, clear and straightforward terms will be used as differentiated marketing and sales tools. This scenario mirrors the early days of cloud computing, where trust was built through transparency and security assurances. Vendors prioritizing clear privacy policies, like how data will or won’t be used to train their models, will not only alleviate fears but also attract more clients, positioning themselves as trustworthy leaders in the Generative AI space. Expect transparency in data handling to become a decisive factor for businesses venturing into Generative AI.

The intangible outcomes of AI will shine through.

A significant shift in how organizations measure AI's success will emerge. AI technologies will be celebrated for making workers more proficient, increasing their capacity and efficiency. This paradigm shift will acknowledge that the true value of AI lies in its ability to empower employees, not in how many positions it can automate away. Intangible effects — such as improved job satisfaction and employee engagement — will become key indicators of AI's positive impact. Expect to see businesses champion AI as a tool for workforce enrichment, fostering a more satisfied and capable team, which in turn drives organizational success. Many a leader will ask, “How are you using AI in your teams and what extra capacity are you experiencing because of it?”

And there you have it – my take on 2024's AI tech landscape. This year, it's all about the harmony between humans and technology, with AI playing a supportive role rather than stealing the show. We're looking at a tech world that's becoming more transparent, more ethical, and, importantly, more human-centric. From AI augmenting our daily grind to regulations finding their footing, 2024 is shaping up to be a year where technology doesn't just progress, it matures. So, here's to a year of tech advancements that are as responsible as they are revolutionary – where the spotlight is as much on human potential as it is on technological prowess.

Hear more on the topic from Adam Field, SVP of Product Strategy, and Liz Benson, SVP of Revenue Strategy & Operations.